There is a version of Harry Kane's career that looks, on the surface, like a story of perpetual near-misses. Corner-kicks taken at Euro 2016. A penalty missed against France in Qatar. Substituted inside the hour in a European Championship final. And yet the counter-argument has rarely been stronger: the 32-year-old arrives at the 2026 World Cup as England's all-time leading scorer, a back-to-back Bundesliga winner, and a man who put the ball in the net 66 times in 56 games for Bayern Munich this season alone.

So the question isn't really whether Kane belongs among the elite. It's whether this, finally, is his tournament.

England cannot function without him

Thomas Tuchel found that out the hard way in March, when a Kane-less England side looked desperately short of cutting edge in a draw with Uruguay and a defeat to Japan at Wembley. Those results were a useful reminder of something most supporters already knew: there is no credible plan B at centre-forward for the national team.

Former England goalkeeper Paul Robinson put it bluntly: Kane is irreplaceable. Robinson, who will be covering England's matches for BBC Radio 5 Live, acknowledged the squad depth that Tuchel has tried to build — Ivan Toney's inclusion drew particular praise, with Robinson noting the striker's 32-goal season in the Saudi Pro League and Al-Ahli's consecutive Asian Champions League triumphs — but the conclusion was unambiguous. England's ceiling rises and falls with Kane's form and fitness.

Former striker Chris Sutton went even further, suggesting that a hypothetical Kane retirement announcement would immediately darken the nation's mood about their World Cup prospects. That is the weight the man carries into every tournament.

A career arc that bends towards now

Kane holds 78 goals in 112 England appearances — numbers that belong on a short list of the greatest international goalscoring careers the game has produced. He won the Golden Boot at the 2018 World Cup in Russia, scoring six times as England reached the semi-finals before losing to Croatia. He was the joint top scorer at Euro 2024 despite looking out of sorts for much of the tournament, finishing with three goals from seven games even as calls grew louder to drop him from the starting XI.

The silverware that eluded him throughout his years at Tottenham Hotspur has begun to arrive. Two Bundesliga titles in succession, followed by a hat-trick in Bayern Munich's 3-0 German Cup final victory over Stuttgart — Kane has shown he can deliver when the stakes are highest at club level. The question the World Cup poses is whether he can translate that form onto the international stage when it matters most.

England open their campaign against Croatia in Dallas on 17 June — a fixture loaded with history given that Croatia ended their World Cup semi-final run in 2018. Before that, Tuchel's squad face New Zealand in a warm-up friendly at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa on Saturday evening, kick-off 21:00 BST.

The Ballon d'Or conversation

If England go deep and Kane drives them there, the Ballon d'Or conversation will become impossible to ignore. His club output this season has already placed him in contention; a World Cup to match would make the argument overwhelming. At 32, he has entered what may well be his last realistic chance to add the sport's most individual honour to what is already a remarkable body of work.

Robinson's assessment captured the mood well. Tuchel, a manager known for changing systems and personnel without sentiment, has one constant: Kane leads the line, every time. That consistency of selection reflects not sentiment but tactical reality. Kane does not merely finish chances — he creates them, links play, and carries the pressure of a nation's expectations with something close to calm.

Sixty years of hurt stretches back to 1966. The squad assembling around Tuchel is experienced, the manager is tactically astute, and the striker leading the line is in the finest form of his professional life. The ingredients are there. Whether they combine at the right moment remains the oldest and most tantalising question in English football.

Frequently asked

When does England play their first World Cup 2026 game?
England kick off their 2026 World Cup campaign against Croatia in Dallas on 17 June. Before that they face New Zealand in a warm-up friendly on Saturday, 21:00 BST.
How many goals has Harry Kane scored for England?
Kane has scored 78 goals in 112 appearances for England, making him the country's all-time record scorer.
How did Harry Kane perform at Euro 2024?
Kane had a mixed Euro 2024, being substituted in all of England's knockout matches including after 61 minutes of the final, but he still finished as joint top scorer in the tournament with three goals from seven games.