Two wins from three would represent genuine progress for Sébastien Pocognoli. Scotland host Slovenia at Hampden Park on Tuesday evening (kick-off 19:45 BST) off the back of a 2-0 victory in North Macedonia — the Belgian's first win since taking charge — and the Nations League table still holds meaningful possibilities for the Scots in this international window.

The problem is that Pocognoli cannot simply pick the same XI again. Scott McKenna collected a red card late in Skopje, ruling the Dinamo Zagreb centre-back out automatically. That is one enforced change. The broader question is whether a squad that has played four games in 11 days needs more than just one rotation.

The defensive reshuffle

Jack Hendry (Al-Ettifaq) has served his own suspension and is widely expected to come straight back into the side. That leaves Pocognoli deciding whether to pair Hendry with Luis Binks (Brøndby) and Stephen Welsh (Swansea City) — both of whom were solid in Macedonia — or hand a first start to Luke Graham of Stoke City, who impressed on his debut from the bench. The most likely outcome looks like a back three of Hendry, Binks and Welsh, with Hendry slotting in for McKenna, but Graham will feel he has done enough to push for minutes.

Andy Robertson earned his 100th cap in Skopje and showed little sign of slowing down. The Tottenham left-back is surely starting again despite Josh Doig (Sassuolo) waiting for an opportunity. On the right, Ben Gannon-Doak demonstrated he could do the defensive work while contributing in attack, and with Scotland expecting to carry the ball forward at home, the 20-year-old Bournemouth winger should keep his place.

The midfield diamond

Pocognoli has used the same midfield diamond across all three games so far and it would be a significant surprise if he broke it up now. Billy Gilmour (Napoli) and Lewis Ferguson (Bologna) appear settled as the base, with John McGinn (Aston Villa) providing the energy and the goals — his penalty in North Macedonia answering a few critics who had questioned whether the 31-year-old was still the player Scotland needed. Lennon Miller (Udinese) is the obvious candidate for more minutes if fatigue becomes a factor.

The forward line

Kieron Bowie's first Scotland goal — scored in Skopje — has almost certainly secured his starting place at Hampden. The Sassuolo striker's movement and direct running have given Scotland something different up front. The more interesting decision involves Oli McBurnie (Hull City): the 30-year-old has 19 Scotland caps and is still to score at international level, yet his link play in North Macedonia was genuinely effective. Pocognoli has a choice between keeping him as an out-and-out striker alongside Bowie, or withdrawing him slightly to the left — mirrored by McGinn on the right — in a more fluid arrangement. Robbie Ure (Sevilla) is the other forward option, though the 24-year-old may find it difficult to dislodge a combination that worked well.

What the group table means for Tuesday

Slovenia lost 2-1 away to group leaders Switzerland in their previous outing, which means they arrive at Hampden needing a positive result themselves. Scotland will not be able to simply sit back and manage. A home crowd, a winning momentum, and a settled core selection all point toward Pocognoli being relatively conservative with his changes — but the schedule has been demanding, and the head coach will weigh up which legs are still fresh enough to press effectively for 90 minutes.

The market has Scotland as favourites at Hampden. We will know the official team an hour before kick-off.

Likely Scotland XI (4-3-3 diamond)

  • GK: Angus Gunn (San Jose Earthquakes)
  • RWB: Ben Gannon-Doak (Bournemouth)
  • CB: Jack Hendry (Al-Ettifaq)
  • CB: Luis Binks (Brøndby)
  • CB: Stephen Welsh (Swansea City)
  • LWB: Andy Robertson (Tottenham Hotspur)
  • CM: Billy Gilmour (Napoli)
  • CM: Lewis Ferguson (Bologna)
  • AM: John McGinn (Aston Villa)
  • ST: Oli McBurnie (Hull City)
  • ST: Kieron Bowie (Sassuolo)

Frequently asked

What time does Scotland vs Slovenia kick off on Tuesday?
Scotland v Slovenia kicks off at 19:45 BST on Tuesday 7 October at Hampden Park, Glasgow. The match is available to watch on BBC iPlayer and listen to on BBC Sounds.
Why is Scott McKenna not available for Scotland vs Slovenia?
Scott McKenna received a red card late in Scotland's 2-0 win over North Macedonia, earning an automatic one-match ban that rules him out of the Slovenia fixture.
What Nations League group are Scotland in and how are they doing?
Scotland are in their Nations League group alongside Switzerland and Slovenia. Switzerland currently lead the group after winning their most recent fixture. Scotland's 2-0 victory in North Macedonia was their first win under Sébastien Pocognoli.