It feels far too soon to draw conclusions from the Premier League table. Five games, a handful of injuries, a couple of VAR controversies — surely nothing is set in stone yet. The numbers, though, tell a rather different story, and if recent history is anything to go by, the standings we are looking at now are a surprisingly reliable preview of where everyone will be come May.

Most clubs finish where they start

Cast your eye back across the last ten Premier League seasons and a clear pattern emerges. More than two-thirds of clubs — 138 of the 200 sides studied — finished within four places of where they sat after matchday five. Twenty-seven of those ended the campaign in exactly the same position. Only twelve clubs in that entire decade moved more than ten places from their early-season berth. The table beds in faster than most fans want to admit.

Last season was a textbook example. Thirteen of the twenty clubs finished within four places of their five-game standing, eventual champions Arsenal were already second, and two of the three sides relegated were already in the bottom three before October had arrived. The broad shape of the season was visible almost immediately.

The title race: top two matters more than top spot

There is one notable exception to the early-table theory, and it cuts right to the most glamorous question of all. The side sitting first after five games has lifted the trophy in just one of the last six campaigns — Manchester City in 2023-24 — and only three times in eleven seasons. Leading the table at this stage is no guarantee of anything.

City's current perfect start, five wins from five, echoes campaigns under Manuel Pellegrini in 2015-16 and Pep Guardiola in 2016-17 when they also won their opening five and ultimately did not win the title. Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool have all been top with flawless records at this point in recent seasons and ended up empty-handed.

What does matter is being in the top two. In each of the last four seasons, the eventual champions were sitting inside the top two after five games. The last side to win the title from outside the top two at this stage were City in 2021-22, and they were already fifth with ten points. All of which points — a very large asterisk over the City situation notwithstanding, given their ongoing appeal against Premier League charges — toward a title race that once again runs through the Etihad and the Emirates.

The bottom of the table is already bleak

If the summit of the table settles slowly, the basement does the opposite. The side propping up the division after five games has been relegated in six of the last seven seasons. That is as damning a statistic as you will find in early-season analysis, and right now it points directly at Tottenham.

Spurs supporters will point to 2008-09, the last time they were bottom at this stage, when the club recovered under Harry Redknapp to finish eighth. That remains the reason for optimism. The wider picture, though, is grim. History also shows that at least one of the current bottom three tends to go down, placing Fulham and Coventry — alongside Spurs — firmly in the conversation. Broaden the net to the bottom six and the pool of relegation candidates looks even more established, with Bournemouth, Aston Villa and Crystal Palace pulled into the mix by a trend showing that all three sides relegated in each of the last three seasons were sitting inside the bottom six at this point.

A table worth taking seriously

None of this is fate. Aston Villa rose from the bottom three to the top four last season, while Tottenham slid in the opposite direction. Surprises happen. But the data is clear enough: the Premier League table after five games is far more than noise. The title picture, the European hopefuls and the relegation candidates are, more often than not, already broadly in place. It pays to look.

Frequently asked

How reliable is the Premier League table after 5 games?
Very reliable for most clubs. Over the last ten seasons, more than two-thirds of teams finished within four places of where they sat after five games, and 27 clubs ended the campaign in exactly the same position.
Does being top of the Premier League after five games mean you'll win the title?
Not necessarily. The side leading after five games has won the title in just one of the last six seasons. However, the eventual champions have been in the top two at this stage in each of the last four campaigns.
Does being bottom of the Premier League after five games mean relegation?
It is a strong warning sign. The club bottom after five games has been relegated in six of the last seven seasons, making it one of the most consistent early-season indicators in the division.