Five games gone, fifteen months of football still to play. It feels far too early to draw conclusions from the Premier League table — but the numbers say otherwise, and they make for fascinating reading.

The table settles faster than you think

Cast an eye back across the last ten Premier League seasons and a clear pattern emerges. Over two-thirds of clubs — 138 of the 200 sides studied — finished within four places of where they sat after five games. Twenty-seven of those ended the campaign in exactly the same position. Only twelve teams across the entire decade moved ten or more places in either direction from their early-season standing. The table, it turns out, has a stubborn memory.

Last season reinforced the point sharply. Thirteen of the twenty clubs finished within four positions of where they sat at the same stage, and the entire top eight after five games went on to form the actual top eight come May — though not in the same order. That is a remarkable degree of stability for a competition so often described as unpredictable.

Being top means less than you'd think

The one area where early standings genuinely mislead is the summit. The side leading the division after five games has lifted the title in just one of the last six seasons, and only three times in the last eleven. Early pacesetters Chelsea, Arsenal, and Liverpool have all owned a perfect record at this stage in recent years and had very little to show for it come the end.

That said, the eventual champions have been inside the top two after five games in each of the last four campaigns. So while sitting first is no guarantee, being outside the top two is increasingly rare for a title winner. The last side to claim the trophy from fifth or lower at this point were Manchester City in 2021-22, who had just ten points on the board.

There is, of course, a significant asterisk hanging over this season's table. Manchester City have won all five of their opening fixtures, but they have also been found guilty of the majority of Premier League charges brought against them. They have appealed. Any sanctions that follow could reshape the standings considerably — until that process concludes, the table must be read with that caveat firmly in mind.

The bottom is even more revealing

If the top of the table is nuanced, the bottom is blunt. The side propping up the Premier League after five games has been relegated in six of the last seven seasons. That is a brutal statistic for any club currently marooned at the foot of the division.

Widening the lens slightly, at least one of the three sides in the relegation zone at this point has gone down in each of the last eight seasons without exception. And the pool of candidates tends to be identified early — over the past three campaigns, every side that was eventually relegated had been sitting inside the bottom six after the opening five fixtures.

What does history say about this season?

The noises out of the data suggest the broad shape of the final table is already forming. The title fight, injuries and City's legal situation aside, looks likely to be contested between the sides already occupying the top two. The European places may be less settled, but the sides already struggling near the foot of the table face a statistical climb that history shows very few clubs manage to complete.

Five games is a small sample. But in the Premier League, small samples have a habit of becoming large truths.

Frequently asked

How predictable is the Premier League table after five games?
Very. Over the last ten seasons, more than two-thirds of clubs finished within four places of where they sat after just five games, with 27 ending the campaign in the exact same position.
Does being top of the Premier League after five games mean you'll win the title?
Not necessarily. The side leading after five games has gone on to win the title in only one of the last six seasons. However, the eventual champions have been inside the top two at this stage in each of the last four campaigns.
Does being bottom of the Premier League after five games mean you'll get relegated?
It is a serious warning sign. The side bottom after five games has been relegated in six of the last seven seasons, making it one of the stronger early-season omens in the division.