Arsenal are on the verge of ending a 22-year wait for the Premier League title, and the noises out of north London have never been louder. Mikel Arteta's side sit five points clear at the summit having played 37 of their 38 league fixtures, and the mathematics are firmly in their favour.
The Numbers That Matter
The Gunners are currently on 82 points and can reach a maximum of 85 this season. Manchester City, their nearest challengers, are on 77 and have two games remaining — meaning their absolute ceiling is 83. Arsenal, in short, cannot be caught if City drop points.
City's next fixture is away at Bournemouth at the Vitality Stadium on Tuesday evening. If Bournemouth avoid defeat — either winning or drawing — Arsenal will be mathematically confirmed as Premier League champions with a game to spare. A City defeat limits their maximum total to 80 points; a draw takes it to 81. Either outcome leaves them short of Arsenal's reachable tally.
What If City Beat Bournemouth?
Should Pep Guardiola's side win on Tuesday, they head into the final weekend two points behind Arsenal. The title race then goes to the wire. City would need to beat Aston Villa on Sunday and hope that Arsenal slip up away at Crystal Palace — a ground that has caused plenty of top-six sides problems over the years.
If both clubs win on the final day, Arsenal are champions. If City win and Arsenal draw, City would take the title on goal difference. If City win and Arsenal lose, City win the league by a single point. It is the scenario Arsenal fans will be doing everything to avoid.
Opta's Take
The data suppliers Opta currently calculate Arsenal's probability of winning the title at 86.44%, reflecting just how close Arteta's squad are to the finishing line. The market broadly agrees — this is Arsenal's crown to lose.
The Historical Weight
Arsenal's last league title came in the 2003-04 season, the famous Invincibles campaign under Arsène Wenger. An entire generation of supporters has grown up without seeing the Gunners lift the trophy. Tuesday evening, then, could be the moment 22 years of near-misses finally give way to something extraordinary — and all eyes will be on the south coast to see whether Bournemouth do Arsenal a favour.
If the Cherries hold or beat City, Arsenal fans will not need to wait until Sunday. The celebrations could begin before the week is out.
Frequently asked
- When could Arsenal be confirmed as Premier League champions?
- Arsenal could be confirmed as champions on Tuesday evening if Manchester City fail to beat Bournemouth at the Vitality Stadium. A draw or a City defeat would make it mathematically impossible for City to overhaul Arsenal's points total.
- How many points do Arsenal need to win the Premier League?
- Arsenal are already on 82 points with one game remaining, giving them a maximum of 85. Manchester City can reach no more than 83 even if they win both of their remaining games, so Arsenal are very close to being guaranteed the title.
- When did Arsenal last win the Premier League?
- Arsenal last won the Premier League in the 2003-04 season, the campaign in which they went the entire league season unbeaten and became known as 'The Invincibles' under manager Arsène Wenger.