Five Premier League matchdays in and the table already looks odd in places. Liverpool were top at this stage last season; Tottenham were third. Both finished miles from those positions. Which is exactly why xG — expected goals, a measure of the number and quality of chances a team creates and concedes — is worth consulting before drawing firm conclusions.

A caveat upfront: five games is a tiny sample, and fixture difficulty varies wildly. Treat these numbers as a directional steer, not a verdict.

Arsenal: still the benchmark at both ends

Champions Arsenal produced their worst result in three years at Brighton last weekend but, strip that game down to its component parts, and they remain the top side in the league by xG difference — the gap between what they've created and what they've conceded. Manchester City sit close behind in that metric, which at least supports the idea that the two clubs most fancied by the market to lift the title in May are genuinely performing to expectation.

Arsenal's defensive numbers are, by some distance, the best in the division. Eight teams have posted a higher attacking xG than the Gunners, which is a mildly surprising detail for a side celebrated for their build-up play — but it underlines just how dominant their defensive structure has been.

Brighton's attack, Newcastle's efficiency problem

Brighton lead the division for attacking xG, ahead of City, Brentford and Manchester United. More strikingly, they've converted that into 15 non-penalty goals from 10.7 xG — a conversion rate that flags them as one of the most clinical sides in the top flight right now.

Newcastle, though, take efficiency to an extreme the other way. They've scored nine non-penalty goals from just 4.5 xG — roughly twice what you'd expect historically. That's the lowest attacking xG in the league, yet they sit in the top half on points. Head coach Matthias Jaissle will be well aware that relying on finishing at that rate over 38 games is not a strategy; it's a borrowed run of form.

At the other end of the efficiency scale, Coventry (in the Championship sample referenced), Sunderland, Nottingham Forest and Tottenham have each scored around three goals fewer than their chances merited. That could mean a finishing problem — or it could simply mean the law of averages is about to correct itself in their favour.

United better than they look; Villa, Palace worse

Manchester United's start has attracted the usual hand-wringing, but the xG picture is more forgiving: only three clubs have posted a higher xG difference. They've been fine more often than the discourse suggests.

Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth also sit better in the xG table than their position in the actual standings implies, whereas Aston Villa, Crystal Palace and Newcastle have the three lowest xG differences in the division. Villa fans may recall that the club recovered from a similarly sluggish start last season to finish fourth — so there's a precedent for not reading too much into early data, even when the data itself is pointing in the same direction as the worrying results.

Promoted sides holding their own

Both Hull (Championship) and Ipswich have made genuinely solid starts by xG standards, suggesting neither will be easy to put away this season. That's a warning to mid-table sides who might fancy the promoted clubs as easy fixtures.

Defensive picture

Forest, despite their attacking shortfall, look well-organised at the back under Oliver Glasner. Liverpool, similarly, have a defensively tidy base even if their forward numbers are moderate. Crystal Palace, Fulham and Chelsea have all been too open — though Chelsea's xG against numbers are noticeably better than the 12 goals they've conceded suggests. They've been unfortunate as well as vulnerable.

It's five games. The table will look different in November. But the xG data at least tells you which clubs are building on solid ground and which are either borrowing points or wasting them.

Frequently asked

What is xG in football?
xG stands for expected goals. It measures the quality and quantity of chances a team creates or concedes, based on factors like shot location and angle. A shot with an xG of 0.3 would historically be scored 30% of the time. It's used to judge performance independent of whether the ball actually went in.
Which Premier League team has the best xG difference this season?
According to data from the first five Premier League games of the season, Arsenal have the best xG difference — meaning the biggest gap between the quality of chances they've created versus those they've conceded. Manchester City are close behind.
Why do teams sometimes overperform their xG?
Teams can outscore their xG through exceptional finishing, goalkeeper errors by the opposition, or simply good fortune in front of goal. It's rarely sustainable over a full season — most sides regress towards their xG total as the sample size grows.