Thirty-eight gameweeks in and the final-day puzzle is the same as ever: how do you field a competitive FPL team when half your squad is playing for nothing? Thomas Woods, writing for BBC Sport, has gone through the fixtures and built a Free Hit-style XI that leans heavily on motivation — and the numbers back most of the calls.

The logic: follow the incentive

Arsenal and Manchester City are both without anything tangible to play for on the final day. Add Aston Villa and most of Manchester United's outfield players to that list and the picture becomes clear — rotate away from dead rubbers and towards teams still chasing European spots or, in West Ham's case, fighting to stay in the division. That single principle shapes the entire selection below.

Defence

The standout defensive pick is Adrien Truffert (Bournemouth, £4.7m). Since Gameweek 29, no other defender has accumulated more FPL points — 60 in total — and he brings genuine attacking returns (one goal, three assists in that run) to go alongside the occasional clean-sheet bonus. Bournemouth are still chasing fifth place; Forest's players, conversely, may have one eye on the summer.

Virgil van Dijk (Liverpool, £6m) is included less for clean-sheet potential — Brentford need a European spot and will come to play — and more for his attacking record: six goals and 12 big chances this season, both more than any other defender in the league.

Antonee Robinson (Fulham, £4.9m) is on penalty duty if Harry Wilson doesn't start again, and faces a Newcastle side that are joint second-lowest scorers away from home and have nothing to play for. The upside runs in both directions.

In goal, Max Weiss (Burnley, £4.2m) is the value option. Wolves have scored just seven away goals in 18 Championship road trips this season, and Weiss appears to be Burnley's established number one — useful cover if you're nervous about David Raya being rested at Arsenal.

Midfield

Bruno Fernandes (Manchester United, £10.4m) is chasing the outright Premier League assists record and, unlike most of United's squad, is near-certain to start. That combination of guaranteed minutes and individual motivation makes him hard to leave out.

Cole Palmer (Chelsea, £10.3m) hasn't delivered in weeks, but the underlying data over the past six gameweeks (five appearances) is encouraging: an xG of 1.75, 16 shots — four more than any other Chelsea player — and a club with European ambitions that will play at pace against Sunderland. He also has something personal to prove after missing out on the latest England squad.

Dominik Szoboszlai (Liverpool, £7.1m) has returned in five of his last five and is Liverpool's most consistent midfielder this season. The Brentford fixture has goals written all over it given both sides have genuine stakes riding on the result.

Crysencio Summerville (West Ham, £5.4m) fills the speculative midfield slot. Six games without a goal, but four in four earlier in the season shows the ceiling is there — and West Ham need to win to give themselves any hope of staying up.

Attack

Richarlison (Tottenham, £6.4m) has had nine shots on target in his last three starts, five big chances, and an xG of 1.99 — yet only one goal to show for it. Spurs need at least a draw to stay in the top flight. Richarlison is comfortably their most threatening forward and a prime candidate for a big return.

Junior Kroupi (Bournemouth, £4.6m) costs just £4.6m and has five goals in his last seven appearances. He is also on penalty duty. Bournemouth attacking with intent against a Forest side unlikely to be at full stretch is a straightforward case.

Jarrod Bowen (West Ham, £7.7m) is the captain pick. The final day could define whether West Ham stay up. Bowen, as the club's most influential attacker, carries the highest ceiling of any player in this position on a day when the stakes could hardly be higher for the hosts.

FAQs

Frequently asked

Should I use my Free Hit chip in FPL Gameweek 38?
If your squad is packed with players from Arsenal, Manchester City or other clubs with nothing to play for on the final day, a Free Hit chip lets you field an entirely different XI for one week without affecting your core team. It can be a useful safety valve in GW38 specifically because so many high-value assets come from clubs without European or relegation stakes.
Why is Jarrod Bowen recommended as FPL captain for Gameweek 38?
West Ham need a positive result to give themselves a chance of avoiding relegation, which means Bowen — their most dangerous attacker — is almost certain to start and play with maximum intent. High-motivation games on the final day often produce big individual returns, making him an attractive captain option at £7.7m.
Which FPL players should I avoid in Gameweek 38?
Players from Arsenal, Manchester City, Aston Villa and much of Manchester United's outfield are the main ones to sidestep, as those clubs have no European or relegation incentive left. Managers at those clubs are also more likely to rotate or rest players ahead of the summer.