Rodri Hernández has not been shy about the mathematics. The Spain captain, speaking at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas ahead of Tuesday's World Cup semi-final, told reporters that France are among the best sides at the tournament — but was equally clear that Spain are, too, and that the record proves it.

"France are one of the best teams here, in great form, but so are Spain. We can beat them," Rodri said. "We've seen that at the Euros and in the Nations League."

Both of those matches were, like Tuesday's fixture in Dallas, semi-finals. Spain beat France 2-1 at Euro 2024, and last summer's Nations League meeting ended 5-4 to Spain — though that scoreline flatters the opposition considerably: the selección were leading 5-1 with eleven minutes remaining. Go back further and the pattern holds: Rodri's first trophy with Spain came at the 2015 Under-19 Euros, where they beat France in the semi-final as well. Mikel Merino was his midfield partner that day; Unai Simón was on the bench; Luis de la Fuente was already the coach.

A long road back

The 30-year-old arrived in the United States having spent much of last season recovering from the torn cruciate ligament that ended his Euro 2024 final prematurely in the summer of 2024 — the same injury that meant he collected his Ballon d'Or on crutches that autumn. He has been candid that the season at Manchester City was about rediscovering himself, and that he is grateful for the club's patience.

He is measured about how Spain have built through the tournament. Unlike Euro 2024, where the team hit top gear almost immediately, this has been a more gradual process — nine thousand miles of travel across six matches, from Atlanta to Guadalajara to Dallas to Los Angeles and back again. "I kept saying it would be a long tournament, that we would have to 'chew' on it," Rodri said. "We've got the feel of things as we went, and now we're in a good moment."

He believes that moment is now. "I see a team that's as competitive as at the Euros. If we can continue this progression, we can reach our level — but what I would underline is how competitive this team is."

The tactical picture

Rodri acknowledged that France carry serious attacking threat, but he also noted their defensive solidity as a factor Spain must respect and plan for. His wider read on the tournament is that, unusually for a World Cup, the four semi-finalists genuinely are the four best sides — a conclusion he reached after watching the "immense majority" of all 100 games played before Spain's own match. (He concedes he probably is, in his words, the worst for obsessive viewing — pen and paper excepted.)

On Lamine Yamal, whose influence continues to grow, Rodri's comments point to a considered approach: integrating the teenager's instinctive brilliance within a collective structure that has grown more cohesive the deeper Spain have gone. De la Fuente, according to Rodri, "hasn't changed at all" since the pair first worked together eleven years ago — a consistency the captain sees as the foundation of everything Spain have built since.

The market has Spain and France closely matched, and on paper there is little to choose between them. The head-to-head record, at least, points in one direction. Spain kick off against France on Tuesday evening in Dallas.

Frequently asked

When is Spain vs France in the 2026 World Cup semi-final?
Spain face France in the World Cup semi-final on Tuesday, 15 July 2026, in Dallas at the Cotton Bowl. Check your broadcaster for the exact UK kick-off time.
What is Spain's recent record against France?
Spain have won their last two competitive meetings with France — a 2-1 victory at Euro 2024 and a 5-4 Nations League win last summer, in which Spain led 5-1 with eleven minutes to play.
Is Rodri fit for the World Cup semi-final?
Yes. Rodri has played all six of Spain's games at the 2026 World Cup. He had spent much of the 2024-25 club season recovering from the torn cruciate ligament he suffered in the Euro 2024 final, but has stated he feels back to his best.